Wykorzystanie informacji diagnostycznej w analizie ryzyka technicznego

Robert Gumiński

Abstract

The paper takes on the issue of uncertainty in statistical methods of technical risk analysis. The goal of the paper was to develop a method, which would enable use of diagnostic information in the task of reducing the uncertainty related to technical risk. Particular attention was paid to the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of destruction/damage due to fatigue while relying on the analysis of the structure of a vibroacoustic signal. The difficulty in this case is that the set of parameters containing diagnostic information may change as defects develop. This fact confirms the necessity of examining the evolution of probability distribution and defining the periods of an object’s operation, carried out while taking into account the actual technical condition as well as the associated identification of defect development phases. The study presents the following issues: - Use of the proportional model to determine that systemic variables, measured during diagnostic inspection , have the influence on the reliability function; - Proving usefulness of the Bayesian updating method in reducing the uncertainty of forecasting the values of reliability function along with the analysis of limitations related to the scope of its application; - Use of spectrum bandwidth factor in detecting the degree of development of the wear/fatigue process affecting the front surface of a tooth, along with determination of important structural parameters, including the shafts’ torsional rigidity; - Use of Bayesian networks while accounting for the updates of conditional probabilities; - Embarking on the task of shaping the safety already at the design stage while relying on the following relation: defect –functional task – symptom; - Developing the method of diagnosing the early stages of defect development while analyzing the distribution of probabilities of a vibroacoustic signal’s amplitudes. The method of research presented in the paper enables use of vibroacoustic signals for building the degradation as well as fatigue models, defining the remaining useful life, formulating more reliable diagnoses and forecasts of an object’s technical condition.
Diploma typeDoctor of Philosophy
Author Robert Gumiński (FACME / IAE)
Robert Gumiński,,
- Institute of Automotive Engineering
Title in PolishWykorzystanie informacji diagnostycznej w analizie ryzyka technicznego
Languagepl polski
Certifying UnitFaculty of Automotive and Construction Machinery Engineering (FACME)
Disciplinemechanical engineering / (technology domain) / (technological sciences)
Defense Date25-11-2010
Supervisor Stanisław Radkowski (FACME / IAE)
Stanisław Radkowski,,
- Institute of Automotive Engineering

Internal reviewers Hieronim Jakubczak (FACME / ICME)
Hieronim Jakubczak,,
- The Institute of Construction Machinery Engineering
External reviewers Wojciech Cholewa
Wojciech Cholewa,,
-
Pages111
Keywords in Englishxxx
Abstract in EnglishThe paper takes on the issue of uncertainty in statistical methods of technical risk analysis. The goal of the paper was to develop a method, which would enable use of diagnostic information in the task of reducing the uncertainty related to technical risk. Particular attention was paid to the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of destruction/damage due to fatigue while relying on the analysis of the structure of a vibroacoustic signal. The difficulty in this case is that the set of parameters containing diagnostic information may change as defects develop. This fact confirms the necessity of examining the evolution of probability distribution and defining the periods of an object’s operation, carried out while taking into account the actual technical condition as well as the associated identification of defect development phases. The study presents the following issues: - Use of the proportional model to determine that systemic variables, measured during diagnostic inspection , have the influence on the reliability function; - Proving usefulness of the Bayesian updating method in reducing the uncertainty of forecasting the values of reliability function along with the analysis of limitations related to the scope of its application; - Use of spectrum bandwidth factor in detecting the degree of development of the wear/fatigue process affecting the front surface of a tooth, along with determination of important structural parameters, including the shafts’ torsional rigidity; - Use of Bayesian networks while accounting for the updates of conditional probabilities; - Embarking on the task of shaping the safety already at the design stage while relying on the following relation: defect –functional task – symptom; - Developing the method of diagnosing the early stages of defect development while analyzing the distribution of probabilities of a vibroacoustic signal’s amplitudes. The method of research presented in the paper enables use of vibroacoustic signals for building the degradation as well as fatigue models, defining the remaining useful life, formulating more reliable diagnoses and forecasts of an object’s technical condition.
Thesis file
Guminski.pdf 2.98 MB
Citation count*5 (2020-09-18)

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