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Air Traffic Incident Analysis with the Use of Fuzzy Event Tree

Marta Byś

Abstract

This paper presents the analysis of the aviation safety issues. One of the most effective methods to increase the level of safety is investigating air traffic incidents and accidents. It leads both to identifying the causes and circumstances contributing to event occurrence, and preventing analogous situations in the future. This paper also presents the methods and models used for assessment of risk in aviation. Those models apply to different types of events depending on their characteristic. The purpose of this paper is to perform the analysis of an air traffic incident in order to calculate the fuzzy probability of transformation the incident into an hypothetical accident. It has been demonstrated using event tree method and illustrated with the example of the event 126/10. The analysis has required the use of the fuzzy sets, as the precise calculation has been impossible due to the lack of statistic data. Theory of fuzzy sets has got an application in a variety of ways in aviation discipline, as it has been presented in the paper. Calculations have been performed using two probability scales represented by trapezoidal and triangular membership functions. In the accident, which occured on 11 February 2010, the aircraft took off on occupied runway where geodesists were performing their duties. Basing on the final report detailing the events that led to the incident, two event trees presenting scenarios leading to the accident have been created. Subsequently, fuzzy probability of transforming the incident into an accident has been estimated.
Diploma type
Engineer's / Bachelor of Science
Diploma type
Engineer's thesis
Author
Marta Byś (FT) Marta Byś,, Faculty of Transport (FT)
Title in Polish
Analiza incydentu w ruchu lotniczym metodą rozmytego drzewa zdarzeń
Supervisor
Jacek Skorupski (FT/DATE) Jacek Skorupski,, Department of Air Transport Engineering (FT/DATE)Faculty of Transport (FT)
Certifying unit
Faculty of Transport (FT)
Affiliation unit
Department of Air Transport Engineering (FT/DATE)
Study subject / specialization
, Transport
Language
(pl) Polish
Status
Finished
Defense Date
17-02-2016
Issue date (year)
2016
Reviewers
Włodzimierz Choromański (FT/DTTD) Włodzimierz Choromański,, Department of Theoretical Transport Design (FT/DTTD)Faculty of Transport (FT) Jacek Skorupski (FT/DATE) Jacek Skorupski,, Department of Air Transport Engineering (FT/DATE)Faculty of Transport (FT)
Keywords in Polish
incydent lotniczy, prawdopodobieństwo rozmyte, bezpieczeństwo, drzewo zdarzeń, badanie zdarzeń lotniczych
Keywords in English
air traffic incident, fuzzy probability, air traffic safety, event tree, analysis of air traffic events
Abstract in Polish
File
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Analiza incydentu w ruchu lotniczym.pdf
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Identyfikator pracy APD: 9859

Uniform Resource Identifier
https://repo.pw.edu.pl/info/bachelor/WUT8f16764aa52d43cfafbb5dd436f6eb6c/
URN
urn:pw-repo:WUT8f16764aa52d43cfafbb5dd436f6eb6c

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