Statistical Modeling of Urban Heat Island Intensity in Warsaw, Poland Using Simultaneous Air and Surface Temperature Observations

Lech Gawuć , Maciej Krystian Jefimow , Karol Paweł Szymankiewicz , Magdalena Kuchcik , Anahita Sattari , Joanna Strużewska


Urban heat island (UHI) is one of the most distinctive characteristics of urban climate. The objective of this study is to apply a statistical modeling of the nocturnal atmospheric UHI based on the relationship between observed air temperature from ground stations and remotely sensed temperature of the urban surface. The goal of the approach is to limit input data for the developed modeling method in order to assure transferability of the methodology in different cities. Time series of surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index are obtained from the MODIS instrument for a 10-year period (2008-2017). The air temperature is collected from the in-situ observational network of 21 stations. The studies are conducted for different locations with gradual changes in urbanization in order to assess the impact of urbanization on the relationship between simultaneous air and surface UHI. The urbanization is described by commonly available land cover metrics. Results showed that the proposed approach provides satisfactory AUHI modeling results for the locations with the least degree of urbanization. The best results are obtained with a simple linear regression model with the iterative procedure to minimize the mean absolute gross error (MAGE). The lowest MAGE for modeled UHI is 1.18 °C with 69% of the variance explained. The strongest linear relationship between simultaneous SUHI and AUHI is noted for those station pairs whose surroundings have the highest differences in urbanization, and the highest UHI intensities are observed. The strength of the SUHI/AUHI linear relationship decreases gradually with the increasing urbanization of the stations' surroundings.
Author Lech Gawuć - [Instytut Ochrony Srodowiska, Warszawa]
Lech Gawuć,,
, Maciej Krystian Jefimow (FEE / CEP)
Maciej Krystian Jefimow,,
- Chair of Environmental Protection
, Karol Paweł Szymankiewicz - [Instytut Ochrony Srodowiska, Warszawa]
Karol Paweł Szymankiewicz,,
, Magdalena Kuchcik - [Stanislaw Leszczycki Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences]
Magdalena Kuchcik,,
, Anahita Sattari - [Polish Academy of Sciences]
Anahita Sattari,,
, Joanna Strużewska (FEE / CEP)
Joanna Strużewska,,
- Chair of Environmental Protection
Journal seriesIEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, ISSN 1939-1404, e-ISSN 2151-1535
Issue year2020
Publication size in sheets0.6
Article number9104931
Keywords in Englishair temperature (AT), prediction, regression, statistical modeling, surface temperature, urban climate, urban heat island (UHI)
Keywords in original languagetemperatura powietrza (AT), prognoza, regresja, modelowanie statystyczne, temperatura powierzchni, klimat miejski, miejska wyspa ciepła
ASJC Classification1902 Atmospheric Science; 1903 Computers in Earth Sciences
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)140
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 140.0, 17-09-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators Scopus Citations = 0; WoS Citations = 0; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 1.641; WoS Impact Factor: 2018 = 3.392 (2) - 2018=3.646 (5)
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