The simulation-fuzzy method of assessing the risk of air traffic accidents using the fuzzy risk matrix

Jacek Skorupski

Abstract

Modernization efforts in air transport are preceded by analyses to make sure that they do not lead to excessive risk in air operations. The risk assessment methods that have been applied so far are insufficient since their classification of combinations of both the probability and consequences of an event is too rough. The aim of this study was to present a risk assessment method that allows to express risk by using a continuous numeric scale. Therefore, a fuzzy risk matrix is proposed in which both the probability and severity of the consequences are expressed by linguistic variables while the risk assessment is made by the fuzzy inference system. A model based on Petri nets was used to assess the probability of aircraft collision, while computer-implemented expert knowledge in the form of fuzzy inference rules was used to estimate the consequences. Experiments carried out using this tool allowed to assess the risk of a Runway Incursion-type traffic incident transforming into an accident at a tolerable level. Furthermore, it was found that the transition of this assessment to the level of intolerable is possible when unfavorable visibility conditions occur in connection with the delayed reaction of several participants of the incident. The proposed method is general and can be applied in different areas.
Author Jacek Skorupski ZITL
Jacek Skorupski,,
- Department of Air Transport Engineering
Journal seriesSafety Science, ISSN 0925-7535
Issue year2016
Vol88
Pages76-87
Publication size in sheets0.55
Keywords in Englishrisk assessment, fuzzy inference systems, air traffic safety, Petri nets, incidents and accidents analysis, fuzzy risk matrix
DOIDOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2016.04.025
URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092575351630073X
Languageen angielski
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The simulation-fuzzy method of assessing the risk of air traffic accidents using the fuzzy risk matrix.pdf 900.76 KB
Score (nominal)35
ScoreMinisterial score [Punktacja MNiSW] = 30.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) [Punktacja MNiSW (2013-2016)] = 35.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Impact Factor [Impact Factor WoS]: 2016 = 2.246 (2) - 2016=2.668 (5)
Citation count*11 (2018-06-18)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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