Implementation of an expert system based on fuzzy logic to support stock market decisions
Paweł Wiszenko , Jan Mulawka
AbstractThis paper concerns the issues of investing in the stock market using artificial intelligence tools. It describes in detail the process of investing in capital markets using the combination of technical analysis and fuzzy logic. Therefore, a kind of an expert system used to predict future share prices has been developed. Its main goal is to support the investor in making decisions by suggesting the purchase of shares, their sale or refraining from acting. Firstly, the paper describes some technical analysis indicators that have been chosen during the literature review. Then, after selecting the appropriate indicators, the model of the fuzzy system has been designed. The created system has been divided into two main parts. The first one is used to calculate the values of the technical analysis indicators based on historical data. The second part is designed to generate a decision in the process of reasoning based on the results from the first part. To verify the decisions taken by the system, a series of tests based on historical data has been conducted. After comparing the results with the real price fluctuations the system decisions have been confirmed. Therefore, it has been concluded that the developed application can be a useful tool to invest in the stock market using technical analysis.
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