Fractal theory application for heat demand forecasting in district heating system

Piotr Aleksiejuk , Wojciech Bujalski


Summary. The aim of this thesis is to formulate short-term heat demand forecasting model based on fractal theory that predicts the value of heat demand for all receivers connected to district heating system depending on weather forecast and calendar information. The paper contains descriptions of basic fractal theory concepts, techniques, analysis of self-similarity of heat demand data, and developed methodology of constructing fractal interpolation curve. Forecast accuracy was investigated for planning heat production in 24-hour horizon.
Author Piotr Aleksiejuk ITC
Piotr Aleksiejuk,,
- The Institute of Heat Engineering
, Wojciech Bujalski ITC
Wojciech Bujalski,,
- The Institute of Heat Engineering
Journal seriesRynek Energii, ISSN 1425-5960
Issue year2016
Publication size in sheets0.5
Keywords in Englishplanning heat, analysis of self-similarity, predictive model, fractal theory, heat demand, district heating system, fractal dimension, iterated function system, fractal interpolation
Languageen angielski
14___bujalski___fractal_theory_application_for_heat_demand_forecasting_in_district_heating_system.pdf 600.37 KB
Score (nominal)11
ScoreMinisterial score = 11.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 11.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Citation count*0 (2018-07-13)
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