Newcomb’s problem isn’t a choice dilemma
Authors:
- Zhanglyu Li,
- Frank Zenker
Abstract
Newcomb’s problem involves a decision-maker faced with a choice and a predictor forecasting this choice. The agents’ interaction seems to generate a choice dilemma once the decision-maker seeks to apply two basic principles of rational choice theory (RCT): maximize expected utility (MEU); adopt the dominant strategy (ADS). We review unsuccessful attempts at pacifying the dilemma by excluding Newcomb’s problem as an RCT-application, by restricting MEU and ADS, and by allowing for backward causation. A probability approach shows that Newcomb’s original problem-formulation lacks causal information. This makes it impossible to specify the probability structure of Newcomb’s univocally. Once missing information is added, Newcomb’s problem and RCT re-align, thus explaining Newcomb’s problem as a seeming dilemma. Building on Wolpert and Benford (Synthese 190(9):1637–1646, 2013), we supply additional details and offer a crucial correction to their formal proof.
- Record ID
- WUT4fa10ed0c07e41e3b24a4a5f3730257b
- Author
- Journal series
- Synthese, ISSN 0039-7857, e-ISSN 1573-0964
- Issue year
- 2021
- Vol
- 199
- No
- 1-2
- Pages
- 5125-5143
- Keywords in English
- Newcomb’s problem; Decision-making; Bayesian network; Causality; Joint probability; Probability structure
- ASJC Classification
- ;
- DOI
- DOI:10.1007/s11229-020-03018-y Opening in a new tab
- URL
- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-020-03018-y Opening in a new tab
- Language
- (en) English
- License
- File
-
- File: 1
- Newcomb’s problem isn’t a choice dilemma, File Li-Zenker2021_Article_NewcombSProblemIsnTAChoiceDile.pdf / 802 KB
- Li-Zenker2021_Article_NewcombSProblemIsnTAChoiceDile.pdf
- publication date: 18-03-2021
- Newcomb’s problem isn’t a choice dilemma, File Li-Zenker2021_Article_NewcombSProblemIsnTAChoiceDile.pdf / 802 KB
-
- Score (nominal)
- 200
- Score source
- journalList
- Score
- = 200.0, 14-05-2022, ArticleFromJournal
- Publication indicators
- = 0; = 0; : 2016 = 1.149; : 2020 (2 years) = 2.908 - 2020 (5 years) =2.296
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://repo.pw.edu.pl/info/article/WUT4fa10ed0c07e41e3b24a4a5f3730257b/
- URN
urn:pw-repo:WUT4fa10ed0c07e41e3b24a4a5f3730257b
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.