Analysis of Air Traffic Incidents using Event Trees with Fuzzy Probabilities

Jacek Skorupski , Michał Lower , Jan Magott

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for analysing Air Traffic Incidents based on an estimate of the probability of an Air Traffic Incident developing into an Air Traffic Accident (Air Traffic Incidents are officially defined as events which are dangerous but without a catastrophic impact). A new approach is presented as previous research in this area has focused more on defining accident occurrence probabilities. Access to information on Air Traffic Incidents is restricted and for this reason the methodology developed was based on Fuzzy Set Theory. Analysis was carried out using Event Trees leading from a real Incident to a hypothetical Accident with the probabilities of occurrence of the various scenarios being defined by fuzzy sets. The results of this analysis enable the calculation of the fuzzy probability of the Incident being transformed into an Accident. Performing this analysis, new measuring techniques for the comparison of fuzzy sets were developed and partially verified. The Case Study presented in the paper analyses a Serious Runway Incursion Incident. This Serious Incident is analysed for influencing factors such as: pilot and flight controller skill levels, airport traffic volume, weather conditions, airport procedures and airport geometry. Applying the methods presented in this paper enables an assessment of the effectiveness of Preventive Recommendations of Accident / Incident Investigation Commissions. Additionally, probability estimations can be developed for different incident situations allowing the identification of Security System Weak Points thus enabling appropriate proactive measures to be taken for their elimination.
Author Jacek Skorupski ZITL
Jacek Skorupski,,
- Department of Air Transport Engineering
, Michał Lower - [Wroclaw University of Science and Technology (PWr)]
Michał Lower,,
-
- Politechnika Wrocławska
, Jan Magott - [Politechnika Wrocławska (P Wroc.)]
Jan Magott,,
-
- Politechnika Wrocławska
Journal seriesFuzzy Sets and Systems, ISSN 0165-0114
Issue year2016
Vol293
Pages50-79
Publication size in sheets1.2
Keywords in Englishair traffic safety, event tree, fuzzy probability, linguistic modelling, serious incident, transportation
DOIDOI:10.1016/j.fss.2015.11.004
URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165011415005394
Languageen angielski
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Analysis of Air Traffic Incidents using event trees with fuzzy probabilities.pdf / 752.13 KB / Analysis of Air Traffic Incidents using event trees with fuzzy probabilities.pdf 752.13 KB
Score (nominal)40
ScoreMinisterial score = 40.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 40.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Impact Factor: 2016 = 2.718 (2) - 2016=2.783 (5)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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