Miss rate neglect in legal evidence

Christian Dahlman , Frank Zenker , Farhan Sarwar

Abstract

Research on probabilistic reasoning has discovered several systematic errors, among which ‘base rate neglect and the ‘fallacy of the transposed conditional have featured prominently. This article introduces the term ‘miss rate neglect to capture the systematic failure to properly account for false positives, i.e. the probability of evidence (E) given the hypothesis (H) is false, P(E|~H). Miss rate neglect occurs when decision makers (i) completely disregard the miss rate; (ii) underestimate the importance of differences in the miss rate, or (iii) overlook circumstances that affect the miss rate. We explain the relevance of miss rate neglect for legal decision making, review extant literature, present new experimental work that empirically validates options (ii) and (iii), and propose experimental variations that future research may pursue.
Author Christian Dahlman
Christian Dahlman ,,
-
, Frank Zenker (FASS / DPEA)
Frank Zenker,,
- Department of Philosophy and Ethics in Administration
, Farhan Sarwar
Farhan Sarwar,,
-
Journal seriesLaw Probability & Risk, [Law, Probability and Risk], ISSN 1470-8396, e-ISSN 1470-840X
Issue year2016
Vol15
No4
Pages239-250
Publication size in sheets0.55
ASJC Classification1211 Philosophy; 1804 Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty; 3308 Law
DOIDOI:10.1093/lpr/mgw007
Languageen angielski
Not used for evaluationyes
Score (nominal)0
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 2; GS Citations = 3.0; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2016 = 0.87; WoS Impact Factor: 2016 = 1.323 (2) - 2017=1.351 (5)
Citation count*3 (2020-08-23)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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