Method of analysis of the relation between serious incident and accident in air traffic

Jacek Skorupski

Abstract

In air transport the last few years resulted in attempts to standardize the methods and tools of risk management, particularly in determining the acceptable (tolerable, target) level of safety TLS. In this paper an original approach of calculating TLS is proposed. Analysis of the various events in air traffic indicates that for serious incidents, there would be sufficient occurrence of only one additional factor, to a serious incident turned into an accident. This observation is the basis for proposing the method, which aims to determine the relationship between serious incident and accident in air traffic. The method uses coloured, timed, stochastic Petri nets for air traffic incidents modelling, as well as for modelling its transformation to accidents. In the paper, extensive example of the serious air traffic incident is described. It shows the opportunities offered by the application of this modelling technique.
Author Jacek Skorupski ZITL
Jacek Skorupski,,
- Department of Air Transport Engineering
Pages2393-2401
Book Soares Guedes (eds.): Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, 2011, CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group/Balkema, ISBN 978-0-415-68379-1
DOIDOI:10.1201/b11433-340
URL http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/b11433-340
Languageen angielski
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Method of analysis of the relation between serious incident and accident in air traffic.pdf 192.85 KB
Score (nominal)10
Citation count*18 (2018-06-18)
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