Method of analysis of the relation between serious incident and accident in air traffic
AbstractIn air transport the last few years resulted in attempts to standardize the methods and tools of risk management, particularly in determining the acceptable (tolerable, target) level of safety TLS. In this paper an original approach of calculating TLS is proposed. Analysis of the various events in air traffic indicates that for serious incidents, there would be sufficient occurrence of only one additional factor, to a serious incident turned into an accident. This observation is the basis for proposing the method, which aims to determine the relationship between serious incident and accident in air traffic. The method uses coloured, timed, stochastic Petri nets for air traffic incidents modelling, as well as for modelling its transformation to accidents. In the paper, extensive example of the serious air traffic incident is described. It shows the opportunities offered by the application of this modelling technique.
|Book||Soares Guedes (eds.): Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, 2011, CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group/Balkema, ISBN 978-0-415-68379-1|
|Citation count*||18 (2018-02-19)|
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.