Air Traffic Incidents Analysis with the Use of Fuzzy Sets

Jacek Skorupski , Michał Lower , Jan Magott

Abstract

In safety, reliability as well as risk analysis and management, information often is uncertain and imprecise. The approach to air incident analysis under uncertain and imprecise information presented in our paper is inspired by the possibility theory. Notably, in such analyses these are both: static and dynamic components that have to be included. As part of this work, static analysis of a serious incident has been performed. In order to do this, probability scale which is based on fuzzy set theory has been given. The scenarios of transformation of incident into accident have been found and their fuzzy probabilities have been calculated. Finally, it has been shown that elimination of one of premises for transformation of the incident into accident significantly reduces the possibility of this transformation.
Author Jacek Skorupski (FT / DATE)
Jacek Skorupski,,
- Department of Air Transport Engineering
, Michał Lower - [Wrocław University of Science and Technology]
Michał Lower,,
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, Jan Magott - [Wrocław University of Science and Technology]
Jan Magott,,
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Pages306-317
Publication size in sheets0.55
Book Rutkowski Leszek, Korytkowski Marcin, Scherer Rafal, Tadeusiewicz Ryszard, Zadeh Lotfi A., Zurada Jacek (eds.): Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing. Part I, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 7894, 2013, Springer, ISBN 978-3-642-38657-2, [978-3-642-38658-9], 637 p., DOI:10.1007/978-3-642-38658-9
Keywords in Englishserious incident, fuzzy probability, events tree, fuzzy inference, air traffic safety
DOIDOI:10.1007/978-3-642-38658-9_28
Languageen angielski
File
LNCS 7894.pdf 1.74 MB
Score (nominal)15
Score sourceconferenceIndex
ScoreMinisterial score = 10.0, 16-01-2020, BookChapterSeriesAndMatConfByConferenceseries
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 15.0, 16-01-2020, BookChapterSeriesAndMatConfByConferenceseries
Publication indicators Scopus Citations = 11; WoS Citations = 9
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