Urban Crime Risk Prediction Using Point of Interest Data

Paweł Cichosz

Abstract

Geographical information systems have found successful applications to prediction and decision-making in several areas of vital importance to contemporary society. This article demonstrates how they can be combined with machine learning algorithms to create crime prediction models for urban areas. Selected point of interest (POI) layers from OpenStreetMap are used to derive attributes describing micro-areas, which are assigned crime risk classes based on police crime records. POI attributes then serve as input attributes for learning crime risk prediction models with classification learning algorithms. The experimental results obtained for four UK urban areas suggest that POI attributes have high predictive utility. Classification models using these attributes, without any form of location identification, exhibit good predictive performance when applied to new, previously unseen micro-areas. This makes them capable of crime risk prediction for newly developed or dynamically changing neighborhoods. The high dimensionality of the model input space can be considerably reduced without predictive performance loss by attribute selection or principal component analysis. Models trained on data from one area achieve a good level of prediction quality when applied to another area, which makes it possible to transfer or combine crime risk prediction models across different urban areas.
Author Paweł Cichosz (FEIT / IN)
Paweł Cichosz,,
- The Institute of Computer Science
Journal seriesISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, ISSN 2220-9964
Issue year2020
Vol9
No7
Pages1-25
Publication size in sheets0.3
Keywords in English crime prediction; point of interest; machine learning; classification
ASJC Classification3305 Geography, Planning and Development; 1901 Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous); 1903 Computers in Earth Sciences
DOIDOI:10.3390/ijgi9070459
URL https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9070459
Languageen angielski
File
ijgi-09-00459.pdf 4.26 MB
Score (nominal)70
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 70.0, 15-09-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 1.229; WoS Impact Factor: 2018 = 1.84 (2) - 2018=2.022 (5)
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