Computing Environment for Forecasting Based on System Dynamics Models

Radosław Pytlak , Damian Suski , Tomasz Tarnawski , Zbigniew M. Wawrzyniak , Tomasz Zawadzki , Paweł Cichosz

Abstract

The paper proposes the computing environment which allows buildingforecasts based on System Dynamics models. The environment is equipped withGUI for building dynamic models according to Forrester’s methodology. The uniquefeature of the application is that the created models can be calibrated with the help ofoptimization procedures tailored for solving nonlinear least squares problems with differential–algebraic equations. Furthermore, the application enables verification ofdecision rules inherited in System Dynamics models by solving problems associated with the models dynamic optimization—then the model with optimal decision rulescan be simulated to build forecasts of interests. To illustrate the functionalities ofthe environment, the example of the model of drug prevalence is discussed in somedetail.
Publication categoriesDidactic article/chapter
Author Radosław Pytlak (FMIS / DAICM)
Radosław Pytlak,,
- Department of Artificial Intelligence and Computational Methods
, Damian Suski (FM / IACR)
Damian Suski,,
- The Institute of Automatic Control and Robotics
, Tomasz Tarnawski
Tomasz Tarnawski,,
-
, Zbigniew M. Wawrzyniak (FEIT / PE)
Zbigniew M. Wawrzyniak,,
- The Institute of Electronic Systems
, Tomasz Zawadzki
Tomasz Zawadzki,,
-
, Paweł Cichosz (FEIT / IN)
Paweł Cichosz,,
- The Institute of Computer Science
Pages43-56
Publication size in sheets0.65
Book Valenzuela Olga, Rojas Fernando, Pomares Hector, Rojas Ignacio (eds.): Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis. Contributions to Statistics, 2019, Springer, ISBN 978-3-030-26035-4, [978-3-030-26036-1 (elektr.)], DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-26036-1
Keywords in PolishSystem Dynamics, prognozowanie, reguły decyzyjne, sterowanie optymalne
Keywords in Englishsystem Dynamics; trajectories forecasting; decision rules; optimal control
Abstract in PolishPraca opisuje środowisko do modelowania z wykorzystaniem metodyki System Dynamics. Środowisko umożliwia również rozwiązywanie zadania sterowania optymalnego w celu wyznaczenia reguł decyzyjnych.
DOIDOI:10.1007/978-3-030-26036-1_4
URL https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-26036-1_4
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)20
Score sourcepublisherList
ScoreMinisterial score = 20.0, 18-02-2020, ChapterFromConference
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