Comparison of Two Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods within the Context of the Variable Regime in the Representative Polish Rivers

Witold G. Strupczewski , Krzysztof Kochanek , Ewa Bogdanowicz , Iwona Markiewicz , Wojciech Feluch


Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies.
Author Witold G. Strupczewski
Witold G. Strupczewski,,
, Krzysztof Kochanek IB - [Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences]
Krzysztof Kochanek,,
- Insitute of Civil Engineering
- Instytut Geofizyki Polskiej Akademii Nauk
, Ewa Bogdanowicz
Ewa Bogdanowicz,,
, Iwona Markiewicz
Iwona Markiewicz,,
, Wojciech Feluch IB
Wojciech Feluch,,
- Insitute of Civil Engineering
Journal seriesActa Geophysica, ISSN 1895-6572
Issue year2016
Publication size in sheets1.5
Keywords in Polish-
Keywords in Englishnon-stationary flood frequency analysis, maximum likelihood, covariance, two-stage methodology, L-moments.
Abstract in Polish-
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)20
ScoreMinisterial score = 20.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 20.0, 28-11-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Impact Factor: 2016 = 0.968 (2) - 2016=1.27 (5)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.